Water availability 

• Potentially lower rainfall could decrease future groundwater recharge rates of the Damman aquifer, leaving Bahrain dependent only on artificial sources.
• The impact on water supply will most likely be on the agricultural sector, which has the highest dependency on groundwater.
• Agricultural water demand will depend mostly on TSE re-use
• No large impacts of future climate scenarios for temperature on the water supply or demand
• The most important water source in the future will be desalinated water. All major plants are located in the coastal area, which means that with sea level rise, valuable critical infrastruture will be highly exposed.

Biodiversity 

• Desertification resulting from the degradation of arable land
• Droughts and dust storms
• Coastal degradation resulting from oil spills and lack of freshwater resources

Transitional risks

• Bahrain has made great efforts to diversify its economy, but the oil and gas sector still plays a very important role with almost 19% of its GDP.
• Under the current and future dependency of Bahrain to non-conventional water sources, water security depends greatly on the government’s financial stability and economic capacity to be able to support the additional desalination investments, treated waste water collection and re-use and the current subsidy system which is likely to remain in the near future.

Value of water

• Water is highly undervalued in Bahrain. Addressing water tariffs and aligning prices to the value of water will help to reduce the high per capita water consumption rates and generate finances for the maintenance and expansion of supply.
• There is a subsidy system in place which makes the financial sustainability of non conventional water production almostunsustainable.
• Future investments in non conventional water sources to meet the future demands are needed. The financial investment required for it, however, will place a significant strain on the government’s finances. Financial stability of Bahrain is subject to oil prices/demand changes.
• Meeting long-term demand however, will require significant economic reforms, focused on reducing subsidies and the diversification of the economy, trade partners for food products and water sources. Given the current political climate it is unlikely the necessary reforms will be implemented in the near future, creating long-term risks to the country’s food and water security (http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/bahrain-food-and-water-security/)